Monthly Market Insights | April 2020

The spread of COVID-19 sent stocks tumbling, as the health and economic costs of the pandemic continue to mount.

U.S. MARKETS
The spread of COVID-19 sent stocks tumbling, as the health and economic costs of the pandemic continued to mount. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 13.74 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 12.51 percent. The NASDAQ Composite lost 10.12 percent.1 When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on. Franklin D. Roosevelt, 32nd President of the United States. Stocks moved sharply lower early in the month, as investors grappled with a string of troubling coronavirus headlines. Meanwhile, the markets kept an eye on the evolving coronavirus pandemic, while digesting both the Super Tuesday results and a drop in oil prices.

SWIFT ACTIONOn March 15, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero and announced several actions designed to support households and businesses. However, markets were unfazed by the Fed’s aggressive move, electing to instead focus on the contraction of economic growth that many are expecting. As prices fell, the hospitality, real estate, and travel industries felt the immediate impact of the newly instituted social distancing rules. At the same time, financial stocks suffered losses on lower interest rates, while energy prices sunk to new lows in part due to lower oil prices.

THE CARES ACT.
As the month came to a close, the passage of the $2 trillion CARES Act led to a historic jump in stocks and provided some much-needed support to the market. Stocks registered their best weekly performance since 1933, with the S&P 500 surging over 10 percent.2 However, stocks were mixed in the final days of trading, leaving the markets with losses for the month.

SECTOR SCORECARD
All industry sectors ended lower in March, with declines in Communication Services (-12.69 percent), Consumer Discretionary (-13.58 percent), Consumer Staples (-4.12 percent), Energy (-36.78 percent), Financials (-19.48 percent), Health Care (-3.93 percent), Industrials (-18.24 percent), Materials (-13.37 percent), Real Estate (-12.97 percent), Technology (-7.32 percent), and Utilities (-7.14 percent).3

RATTLED BY THE MARKET DROP? YOU’RE NOT ALONE

We have witnessed some extraordinary moves in the financial markets during the past few trading sessions.

In recent days, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has fallen by over 7 percent more than once. Ongoing concerns over the possible economic slowdown stemming from the coronavirus are prompting traders to reprice financial assets.1 For many, things “got real” when the National Basketball Association suspended its season, and actor Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson both tested positive for COVID-19.

In times like these, I hear from some clients that they can find it difficult to stay committed to an investment program when fears are high.

But for me, a quick look at recent history helps me keep tumultuous seasons in perspective.

Remember when the trade dispute with China ramped up back in February 2018? In just six trading days, stock prices had undergone a rollercoaster ride on their way to a 10-percent market correction. On February 8, 2018, CNBC reported that the Dow Industrials traveled 22,000-plus points over the course of February’s first full week of trading, due to trade-related fears.2

How about the 4th quarter of 2018? On October 10 of that year, the Dow saw an 800-point drop, largely due to rising interest rates and global economic concerns. And who can forget the holiday market trading two months later? It was a breathtaking event as the Dow lost over 600 points on Christmas Eve, then soared 1,000 points the day after Christmas.3,4

In the past few weeks, I’ll admit that I’ve done a few “double takes” at my computer screen, as we’ve watched major swings in stock prices and movements in the bond and crude oil markets.

But just like always, I am here to help you and your family answer any questions that might surface for you. Whatever decisions you’re considering, I’d be honored to support you through them. Reach out to me anytime.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

1. CNBC.com, March 12, 2020
2. CNBC.com, February 8, 2018
3. CNBC.com, October 10, 2018
4. CNBC.com, December 25, 2018

Thrift Savings Plan – Allocating Your TSP in Uncertain Times

During this webinar we will go into more depth on creating a portfolio based on risk return statistics that are appropriate for your individual needs. Tools will be provided to determine if your current TSP allocation is within your comfort zone.

Tues., March 24, 2020 from 1:00-2:00pm EST 

To access the Live Webinar, click here.

If you have questions related to the subject matter that you would like Carol to address after the meeting, email karen@fedsavvy.com. 

If you experience problems registering, please email natalie@fedsavvy.com or call (855)531-7252

For those of you who can’t participate on the computer and would like to call in, let us know and we will send you the slides so you can follow along! Or contact Natalie Meglino at natalie@fedsavvy.com and request to be registered.

Securities offered through J.W. Cole Financial, Inc. (JWC) Member FINRA/SIPC.  Advisory Services offered through J.W. Cole Advisors (JWCA). FedSavvy Educational Solutions and JWC/JWCA are unaffiliated entities. Securities are not FDIC insured or guaranteed and may lose value.  Investments are not guaranteed and you can lose money.   This presentation is for educational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell an investment. Neither FedSavvy Educational Solutions nor JWC/JWCA are tax or legal advisors and this information should not be considered tax or legal advice.  Consult with a tax and/or legal advisor for such issues.

Coronavirus And The Markets

Key Takeaways

The Wuhan coronavirus has unnerved global equity markets so far in 2020. While still early, compared to the SARS outbreak in late 2002/early 2003, investors are concerned about the possible impact to economies and on markets.    

However, to date, Chinese stocks are responding in a manner remarkably similar how they reacted to the SARS outbreak in late 2002/early 2003. That is, after an initial shot straight down, equities stabilize and start to rebound as they digest the economic implications of the virus and government responses.

If markets continue to follow the SARS template and the policy response from Chinese and other central authorities calms investor nerves, already relatively cheap international stocks could receive an additional boost.

After the coronavirus was first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on December 31, 2019, global equity markets took a hit of varying degrees, with emerging market stocks falling over 4.6%. While reminiscent to the SARS outbreak in late 2002/early 2003, investors have been tempted to extrapolate a far more damaging and lasting impact from the coronavirus. For example, more deaths from the coronavirus than SARS have already been reported, and the response of Chinese authorities has been more forthright in quarantining entire cities. Such measures will certainly have more immediate and knock-on effects to global growth than during the SARS episode, given China has gone from the world’s sixth to second largest economy during this time.

Equally impressive, however, has been the response of China’s central bank, both in terms of injecting liquidity into the system and lowering targeted borrowing rates to soften any near-term market impact. It is perhaps due to these aggressive measures that Chinese stocks seem to be tracking the sharp sell-off and V-shape recovery pattern that they did during the earlier SARS episode (chart below). It may be that markets are seeing through this short-term volatility and anticipating only a brief (though substantial) drop in global economic growth.

Source: Bloomberg

While it is encouraging that markets are currently following the previous SARS script, it should be acknowledged that a V-shaped recovery is not a given. Indeed, investors may still be tempted to dump international and emerging market stocks amid the unknown and open-ended nature of possible contagion. As a buffer against that uncertainty, it is helpful to remember that international stocks are trading at a fairly steep valuation discount relative to their US counterparts (chart below). At such inexpensive levels, foreign equities could offer investors an attractive source of additional returns, and certainly argues for portfolios remaining globally diversified.

Franklin Planning takes no responsibility for the current accuracy of this information. Securities offered through J.W. Cole Financial, Inc. (JWC) Member FINRA/SIPC.  Advisory Services offered through J.W. Cole Advisors (JWCA). Franklin Planning and JWC/JWCA are unaffiliated entities. Securities are not FDIC insured or guaranteed and may lose value.  Investments are not guaranteed and you can lose money.   This presentation is for educational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell an investment. Neither Franklin Planning and JWC/JWCA are tax or legal advisors and this information should not be considered tax or legal advice.  Consult with a tax and/or legal advisor for such issues.

Estate Liquidity Plan

During client review meetings, we’ve noticed that a number of our clients are ending up with a slight gap in their estate plan. There are a few ways to manage your final expenses when you pass away. However, most of the people we talk with have not thought this through and believe they have filled this need.

Let’s go through an example of a typical conversation that I have with clients. Let’s call them Mike and Tracy. They are in their early sixties and during an annual review meeting I asked them how they have planned for their beneficiaries to manage their final expenses.

Carol: Mike and Tracy, what plans have you made for Michael Jr. and Patrick (their sons and beneficiaries) to manage your final expenses when you pass away?

Mike: We have life insurance for that. Both Tracy and I have a permanent life insurance policy for $100,000, which is more than enough to pay our final expenses.

Carol: Life insurance is an amazing wealth transfer tool, but it isn’t typically available for 30 or more days due to the requirement of a death certificate and the claims process.

Tracy: What about our money at the bank?  We set it up with a transfer on death (TOD).

Carol: TOD is a great way to avoid probate, but your bank accounts will freeze when you die and require a death certificate to get access.

Mike: What about our investments and annuities?

Carol:  Both require a death certificate to start the claims process. The national average is currently 10 days to get a certified copy of the death certificate, assuming there is not an autopsy or unknown cause of death.

Client:  Michael Jr. is our Power of Attorney (POA) and can sign documents for us. Does that work?

Carol:  POA is great to have in place, but this unfortunately dies with you and will not work after you pass away.

You are like most of my clients. You have not purposely neglected to plan, but you were just not educated on the details of how to help your beneficiaries manage your final expenses when you pass away.

First, you mentioned life insurance and that you have done a great job of building your wealth. Let’s address some of the common issues:

·       Life Insurance – Requires a death certificate and can take one month to several months to receive, if in an employer plan.

·       Bank accounts – Requires a death certificate and probate, unless in a trust.

·       Retirement Accounts (IRAs and Company Plan) – Require a death certificate and processing time. If proper beneficiaries are not listed, this goes through probate.

·       Annuities – Same as above.

·       Brokerage Accounts – Requires a death certificate and probate, if not in a trust.

·       Children as joint owners – divorce, creditors, lawsuits, gift tax, etc.

·       Pre-paid Funeral – Not enough money and only covers funeral. If any money is left, it must go through probate.

Carol: When the artist Prince passed away, his estate was valued at $300 million. The family did not have access to these funds for his funeral. The actor George Lopez gave $25,000 to the family for the funeral expenses, along with travel expenses for his siblings to come to funeral.

Tracy: What other options are there?

Carol: I find that most of our clients have unintentionally not thought through managing their final expenses. Those that have had opted to either pre-pay a funeral home or fill this gap by using a Beneficiary Liquidity Plan (BLP).  I personally am not a fan of pre-paying for a funeral. Several people have shared with me: “Although my parents pre-paid for their funeral, there were many extra expenses that were added once they passed.”  In addition, most “Mom and Pop” funeral homes have been taken over by corporate owners and don’t do business the way the original owners did. And if the original owners of the funeral parlor are still there and your father pre-paid $20,000 for his funeral and the funeral directors bill was $15,000, the balance goes to your father’s estate. What’s so bad about that? Probate!!!

There is another was to plan, which is called a Beneficiary Liquidity Plan. This provides liquidity in 24-48 hours without a death certificate. This is making it easier on your sons during one of the most difficult times of their lives. They don’t have to come up with money or go back and forth the with funeral home if they had to do a collateral assignment. They can use money the family is going to receive at death, but eliminate the waiting period to get access. The goal is to make sure the family has access to enough funds to get them through the first 30-45 days, until the estate can be settled properly. This is not making the inheritance any bigger or any smaller. It is just reallocating funds they will receive anyway. 

Mike: What would something like this cost, and for how long would I need to make premium payments?

Carol: You are not making any payments. You would be using money you’ve already carved out, making it easier for your children during their time of grieving.

I recommend putting as little as you think necessary. The difference with this, versus the prepaid funeral option, is any funds you put into this trust gets over-nighted to both the funeral director and the beneficiaries at the same time.

Franklin Planning takes no responsibility for the current accuracy of this information. Securities offered through J.W. Cole Financial, Inc. (JWC) Member FINRA/SIPC.  Advisory Services offered through J.W. Cole Advisors (JWCA). Franklin Planning and JWC/JWCA are unaffiliated entities. Securities are not FDIC insured or guaranteed and may lose value.  Investments are not guaranteed and you can lose money.   This presentation is for educational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell an investment. Neither Franklin Planning and JWC/JWCA are tax or legal advisors and this information should not be considered tax or legal advice.  Consult with a tax and/or legal advisor for such issues.